Hey Deece -- Love this line — “the Republican statewides are the most mediocre collection of public servants this side of the Russian Duma."
BUT…. I was hoping for your thoughts on what can be done going forward. I’m not one for throwing in the towel.
My initial thoughts on what can be done:
1. Continue to build with relational organizing — specifically the Reach app w Blue Action Dems’ — currently called the 2 Million Texans campaign. (Do you happen to know any of the Blue Action Dems gang — Carrie Collier-Brown, Sri Kulkarni, Lana Hansen?)
* Over half the registered voters didn’t vote. I don’t have stats yet, but my sense is that the “2 Million Texans” campaign boosted turnout with the people we could “reach.”
* Had we been able to start months earlier and — this is key — had Beto’s campaign gotten on board from the get go — we could’ve identified 2M+ voters that were reachable thru friends & family. If we’d turned out 46% of them to vote D, we’d have gotten the 900K we needed.
* Maybe that’s just a pipe dream. But what I saw I that I was able to get folks to vote who’d never voted, or vote rarely, because they heard from me, not a stranger or a text bot.
* As it was, bc of last minute promotion by Beto & all candidates, we’d identified 600K a day or 2 before the election. But by then there wasn’t time for everyone to do outreach to their peeps.
* We’ll continue building that network. We’re over 700K now, with 6700+ users. Many of use will use it to organize our neighborhoods & precincts. Should be in better shape for 2024, assuming we get to have another free & fair election…. (Ahem)
2. Somehow move any more needles we can in rural TX. Beto left it all on the field, and my sense is we shouldn’t stop working there. ...
Lucy, I am delighted to have you among my readers and commenters. Some thoughts:
1) 45.71% of registered Texas voted in the Governor's race. That's not as good as 2018 (53%), but much better than any other midterm election. Travis County turnout was 52.15%. I mention these to point out that Texas voters are taking midterm elections seriously, as opposed to the 33.7% in 2014.
2) I suspect that when more analysis is done, some parts of the Democratic coalition — women, minorities, young people — will have exceeded expectations. But the rural and exurban GOP will have outperformed that effort.
2a) GOP turnout in some of those rural counties is a mystery. It's not just that they turned out — they voted 80 or 90% for Abbott.
3) As technology gets better, we can do more of the things you mentioned that had such success. And, of course: START EARLIER!
4) All the demographic trends are moving our way. Just as 80% of rural voters chose Abbott et. al., 80% of voters under 30 chose Beto et al. Got to get them registered and then stay in touch with them.
The energy of you and all the other volunteers is what will ultimately turn Texas blue. Brava!
Good take on this election. Beto campaign did not have the early volunteer effort that was present against Cruz. They went to texting seemingly. Maybe Beto exhaustion. For local surprises, my county commissioner did not run and the New Democrat beat the repub challenger who had been commissioner 4 years earlier. And the JP Dem here won as well.
Thanks for your comment, Ray, and for subscribing. You make an interesting comment about Beto exhaustion; this was, after all, his third campaign in three election cycles. Also, are texting and postcarding as effective as block walking? One theory of why the GOP did as well as it did in 2020 (despite losing the presidency) was that they stressed one-on-one contact while Democrats generally stayed away, because COVID.
Hey Deece -- Love this line — “the Republican statewides are the most mediocre collection of public servants this side of the Russian Duma."
BUT…. I was hoping for your thoughts on what can be done going forward. I’m not one for throwing in the towel.
My initial thoughts on what can be done:
1. Continue to build with relational organizing — specifically the Reach app w Blue Action Dems’ — currently called the 2 Million Texans campaign. (Do you happen to know any of the Blue Action Dems gang — Carrie Collier-Brown, Sri Kulkarni, Lana Hansen?)
* Over half the registered voters didn’t vote. I don’t have stats yet, but my sense is that the “2 Million Texans” campaign boosted turnout with the people we could “reach.”
* Had we been able to start months earlier and — this is key — had Beto’s campaign gotten on board from the get go — we could’ve identified 2M+ voters that were reachable thru friends & family. If we’d turned out 46% of them to vote D, we’d have gotten the 900K we needed.
* Maybe that’s just a pipe dream. But what I saw I that I was able to get folks to vote who’d never voted, or vote rarely, because they heard from me, not a stranger or a text bot.
* As it was, bc of last minute promotion by Beto & all candidates, we’d identified 600K a day or 2 before the election. But by then there wasn’t time for everyone to do outreach to their peeps.
* We’ll continue building that network. We’re over 700K now, with 6700+ users. Many of use will use it to organize our neighborhoods & precincts. Should be in better shape for 2024, assuming we get to have another free & fair election…. (Ahem)
2. Somehow move any more needles we can in rural TX. Beto left it all on the field, and my sense is we shouldn’t stop working there. ...
Lucy, I am delighted to have you among my readers and commenters. Some thoughts:
1) 45.71% of registered Texas voted in the Governor's race. That's not as good as 2018 (53%), but much better than any other midterm election. Travis County turnout was 52.15%. I mention these to point out that Texas voters are taking midterm elections seriously, as opposed to the 33.7% in 2014.
2) I suspect that when more analysis is done, some parts of the Democratic coalition — women, minorities, young people — will have exceeded expectations. But the rural and exurban GOP will have outperformed that effort.
2a) GOP turnout in some of those rural counties is a mystery. It's not just that they turned out — they voted 80 or 90% for Abbott.
3) As technology gets better, we can do more of the things you mentioned that had such success. And, of course: START EARLIER!
4) All the demographic trends are moving our way. Just as 80% of rural voters chose Abbott et. al., 80% of voters under 30 chose Beto et al. Got to get them registered and then stay in touch with them.
The energy of you and all the other volunteers is what will ultimately turn Texas blue. Brava!
Good take on this election. Beto campaign did not have the early volunteer effort that was present against Cruz. They went to texting seemingly. Maybe Beto exhaustion. For local surprises, my county commissioner did not run and the New Democrat beat the repub challenger who had been commissioner 4 years earlier. And the JP Dem here won as well.
Thanks for your comment, Ray, and for subscribing. You make an interesting comment about Beto exhaustion; this was, after all, his third campaign in three election cycles. Also, are texting and postcarding as effective as block walking? One theory of why the GOP did as well as it did in 2020 (despite losing the presidency) was that they stressed one-on-one contact while Democrats generally stayed away, because COVID.
Please keep reading and commenting.