What We'll Learn from Tuesday's Primary Runoffs
John Cornyn’s likely defeat on Tuesday tells us all we need to know about the bleak future of the Texas Republican Party.
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Sunday, May 24, 2026
During the impeachment trial of Attorney General Ken Paxton – less than three years ago but seemingly much longer – Paxton defense attorney Tony Buzbee – in one of his, believe it or not, less bombastic moments – thundered on the Senate floor, “The Bush era in Texas ends today!”
As Mimi Swartz points out in her autopsy of the Paxton trial, the Paxton team very much saw the trial as a cultural battle between the old and the new Texas GOP.
Now we are engaged in a great primary runoff battle, testing whether a rules-based but conservative state government, or any government so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure.
Old and Busted A.G.: low profile, defend state agencies, collect child support, issue opinions on legal and ethical issues
New MAGA Hotness A.G.: high profile, pick fights on red meat issues, torment practitioners of social justice, ignore problems in the foster care system.
1. What Happens on Tuesday in Cornyn v. Paxton?
The race has been close all spring. Cornyn surprised many by getting the most votes in the March 2 primary, and the two have remained within each other’s margin of error ever since.
I’ve not seen any polling since Trump made his endorsement last Tuesday, but the betting markets have made their decision. Here is Polymarket:
In the betting markets, at least, Trunp’s endorsement broke the race wide open.
My Take: I think Paxton will win; the only issue may be his margin of victory. If he wins by three or four points, befitting the close race it has been all along, Paxton will be appropriately grateful. If he blows Cornyn out by 10 points or more, Trump will immediately take credit for the victory.
2. What About Larger Texas GOP Politics?
The Cornyn-Paxton battle is the marquee race in the Old and Busted vs. New MAGA Hotness war within the Texas GOP. The Old and Busted Texas GOP that gave us the Bushes and Rick Perry’s Texas Miracle is fading into the West Texas sunset. It was resolutely pro-business, pro-immigrant (if not pro-immigration), and capable of working constructively with Democrats both before and after the GOP achieved its majorities in the Texas Legislature.
The New MAGA Hotness is none of those things. It is focused on red meat for its slavering hordes: punching down on transgender kids, eliminating DEI in higher education and state agencies, and rank Islamophobia. Its governing priorities are set by oil oligarchs like Tim Dunn, voucher freaks from Pennsylvania, and whoever the hell it is who wants to ruin Texas with all those data centers. And, of course, with one Donald Trump to tule them all.
3. A Premature Eulogy for John Cornyn’s Career
The Wall Street Journal published an article last month entitled “’No Country for John Cornyn’: A Texas GOP Senator’s Last Stand.” The theme of the article was the Cornyn represented the “true conservatives” who’d made up the backbone of the GOP, and of their Senate majority. Oh, how sad it is, when “real” conservatives as shoved aside by hot-blooded MAGA hooligans who don’t know, or don’t care, how to govern.
But John Cornyn, like all the other GOP Senators, failed the ultimate test of his conservatism: he stood by while Donald Trump sh*tcanned the Constitution, turned the White House into a full-blown criminal enterprise, destroyed the impartiality and reputation of the Department of Justice, and turned the “greatest deliberative body in the world,” as the Senators like to call themselves, into abject jesters and flunkies for the Orange Mad King.
Texas has sent few enough great people to the U.S. Senate: Sam Houston, Lyndon Johnson, John Tower – go ahead, I dare you to get to five. But Cornyn may be the one who, given his background and the challenges of his moment, most failed to rise to the occasion.
I suppose the good news for Texas is that the Democrats have a solid, if untested, candidate in James Talarico. He has created a distinctive, less threatening brand for himself, and has raised a ton of money. Whoever wins the GOP runoff on Tuesday, they will have their hands full this fall.
Ive been surprised by the lack of yard signs. I’m in a north SA neighborhood, with lots of retirees and ex military folks. I can’t recall seeing either a Paxton or Cornyn sign. The “Pray for America” signs are the most numerous 🤣
Under trump, the senate went from its purported "greatest deliberative body in the world" to the greatest joke in the world. It's more akin to Russia's Federation Council, except more absurdly funny. And just wait for the Talarico v Paxton race (not that it matters on the R side). We'll be exposed to the meat eating vegan who promotes Sharia Law and wears a chador in private. Oh, they gotta toss in him being a card-carrying commie socialist as well. Can't waste a classic R trope.