What Trump Did
The scope of Donald Trump’s, and Trumpism’s, victory on Tuesday is astonishing. We ignore it at our peril, but there's ample reason for hope.
Welcome to another installment of Life Its Ownself. I offer insight, analysis and context on Texas and national politics, as well as entertaining stories of life its ownself in the Lone Star State. If you like what you read, please 1) smash the Like button at the bottom of this installment, 2) subscribe to this newsletter, and 3) tell your 1,000 best friends to read and subscribe. Also, feel free to comment below. I’d love to hear your thoughts.
Saturday, November 9, 2024
Quote of the Day: “It’s always darkest before it turns pitch black.” – Senator John McCain
That Donald Trump handily won reelection on Tuesday night should give pause to any thoughtful American. He ran explicitly as a proto-authoritarian, had a “platform” that was jumbled and self-contradictory, and punched down on every group of Americans his supporters did not like. This does not a national leader make.
But it is the breadth and depth of his victory that should set off alarm bells for everyone committed to democracy and the rule of law during this period of our history. Put simply, Donald Trump kicked as and took names, dominating the election and realigning American electoral politics.
Donald Trump did better than his 2020 percentages in 48 of the 50 states.
Donald Trump did better among almost all demographic groups:
Understood another way, he dismembered the Democratic coalition that Barack Obama had stitched together in 2008. I turn to Ruy Teixiera for some numbers:
Turnout: Eighteen million fewer people voted in this election than in 2020. Trump’s number fell by three million, Harris’s by 15 million.
Gender gap: “Harris’s margin among women was actually less than Biden’s in 2020, 7 points for Harris vs. 12 points for Biden. And the Trump margin was better among men, 10 points vs. 5 points in 2020. The overall gender gap went from 17 points in 2020 to….17 points in 2024.”
Young voters: “Women under 30 supported Biden by 32 points in 2020 but supported Harris by just 18 points in this election, a 14-point shift toward Trump. Among young men, the swing was even harder: these voters supported Biden by 15 points in 2020 but supported Trump by 14 points in 2024. That’s a 29-point pro-Republican swing.”
Nonwhite voters: “Harris carried them by 35 points compared to Biden’s 48-point margin in 2020. Among black voters, Harris’s margin was 67 points compared to 83 points for Biden in 2020; Trump got 16 percent of the black vote and 24 percent among black men. Among Latinos, the Democratic margin was cut in half, plunging to 14 points compared to 28 points for Biden in 2020. Trump got 42 percent of the Hispanic vote and 47 percent among Hispanic men.”
The working-class (non-college) vote: “Among all working-class voters, Trump dramatically widened his advantage, tripling his margin from 4 points in 2020 to 12 points in this election. That included moving from 25 to 29 points among white working-class voters and radically compressing his deficit among nonwhite working-class voters from 48 points in 2020 to 33 points this election.”
Household income: “Harris lost voters under $50,000 in household income as well as voters from $50,000 to $100,000 in income. But she did carry voters with over $100,000 in household by 8 points, one place where Harris did improve over Biden in 2020.”
For the first time, Donald Trump had coattails, outperforming down-ballot candidates in many states. Historically, Trump has underperformed compared to statewide GOP candidates (and, at a more granular level, local ones, too). For instance, in Texas in 2020, Trump won 52.1% of the vote while Senator John Cornyn won 53.5% in his reelection bid. This year, Trump got 56.22% of the vote while Senator Ted Cruz received 53.12% in his reelection bid. [other examples?]
The shift rightward was everywhere, even in solidly blue areas across the land. Here in Texas, Harris County (Houston) and Bexar County (San Antonio) both shifted eight points right and Dallas County shifted 10 points right. In deepest-blue Travis County, Trump did three points better than he had in 2020. The Texas Tribune reports that Trump corralled 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, and won 14 of the 18 counties along the southern border of the state.
Here are the numbers for the four counties in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Read them and weep.
Trump can now claim legitimacy and a mandate from the people. Snarky sidebar: Isn’t it amazing that the anticipated election fraud, election interference, election officials’ corruption, etc. did not materialize at all once Trump had won? It’s a miracle!
Not only does he have a mandate, he has at least 53, and possibly more, stooges distinguished members of the Senate he can call upon to confirm his most repugnant nominees, a prospect that undoubtedly has Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton surreptitiously rearranging his pants even as he contemplates new ways to torment Texans he does not like.
It’s still too close to call which party will control the House, although the GOP majority, if any, may be more razor-thin and dysfunctional than the current one.
This is not a reassuring picture I am painting. And yes, it will get darker before it gets completely back. But we still live in the United States; it has not disappeared completely since Tuesday. So I have a couple pieces of advice I am trying to follow going forward.
Keep Calm. Don’t lose heart. Celebrate the things that make America wonderful to you – they’re still here. Remember that there are many more of us than there are of them. Hug your kids. Call your friends, even if only to share your disbelief and worry. Laugh. Go see a movie or some live music.
Carry On. Nothing is going to happen between now and January 20th. And when it does, much of it is going to blow up in his face. (Remember: having assumed office in 2017, Trump suffered significant electoral defeats in 2018 and 2020.) At some point, it will be necessary to do what you’ve been doing most of your lives – paying attention to the world around you, speaking out when you see an injustice, using your civic rights and your vote to insist on a better America.
Jonathan V. Last at The Bulwark offered a modest proposal this week: Let Trump Be Trump. If his plans are as unworkable as we think they are – and they are – they will self-destruct sooner or later. In the meantime, don’t help him, especially by rescuing him from the worst consequences of his decisions.
We’ve got this.
Thank you Deece!
My dream is that trump will choke on a Quarter Pounder and be rendered voiceless, reduced to using hand puppets to flap his Weave. James Donald Vance will march in to convert trumpian histrionics into well constructed fatuosities. All of this will be gobbled down by the ignorati, stuffed on MAGA's nutraloaf, thinking it's a T-Bone. I guess I'm just less sanguine about all this, terribly disappointed in +/- 80,000,000 folks (including the pathetic non-voters) and the loop of Martha Reeves and the Vandellas is singing in my brain:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQRIOKvR2WM