Three Weeks … and Then What?
The presidential election is in three weeks from today … but that will not be the end of it, unfortunately.
First, a programming note: tune in tonight for the debate between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred, live from Dallas at 7:00 p.m. This will be the only debate the two have. You can watch it on C-SPAN or one the following TV stations/webstreams:
WFAA (Dallas-Fort Worth)
KHOU (Houston)
KVUE (Austin)
KENS (San Antonio)
KCEN (Waco)
KAGS (College Station)
KYTX (Tyler)
KIII (Corpus Christi)
KBMT-KJAC (Beaumont)
KXVA-KIDY (Abilene and San Angelo)
KWES (Midland and Odessa)
Welcome to another installment of Life Its Ownself. I offer insight, analysis and context on Texas and national politics, as well as entertaining stories of life its ownself in the Lone Star State. If you like what you read, please 1) smash the Like button at the bottom of this installment, 2) subscribe to this newsletter, and 3) tell your 1,000 best friends to read and subscribe. Also, feel free to comment below. I’d love to hear your thoughts.
But first, your moment of Zen … Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) in the western sky over Marathon, Texas, an hour after sunset on Sunday, October 13, 2024. Photo by yours truly.
Tuesday, October 15, 2024
Quote of the Week:
“As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”
H.L. Mencken
Some friends of mine were in a grocery store in Alpine the other day when they espied a middle-aged woman dressed head to toe in Trump regalia. My friends are from Austin, and so this was an unusual enough occurrence. What really blew their minds, though, was the young (late 20s) woman who came up to her and raved about her Trumpian fashion choices – “I just love your hat,” “Where can I get a sweatshirt like that?” and so on.
My first instinct was that she was trolling them, since any half-bright person born after 1980 knows how to find and purchase the overwhelming variety of Trump crap available. But my friends were left shaken by the encounter, unable to process the idea that a seemingly intelligent, well-dressed young woman would be gaga for Trump – even in Brewster County. But such, apparently, is life in the end-stage of American democracy, circa 2024.
The 2024 presidential election is three weeks from today, and it looks to be tighter than a wet boot. The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Kamala Harris with a narrow lead nationally, 48.2% to 46.8%. But the RCP “No Toss-Ups” map shows Trump winning the Electoral College, 302-236, if the election were held today. Nate Silver of 538 fame uses a methodology that simulates 1,000 possible outcomes of the election and concludes that Harris has a 54% chance of winning the election; as recently as September 18, her chance of victory stood at 64%.
I pause at this point to marvel at how this race could be so close. To me, it’s a question about America, not the candidates. Donald Trump is the most degenerate person in American political history, to the point where conservatives have completely jettisoned their long-held belief that “character matters.” He has been found guilty of 34 felony counts of financial impropriety, has been credibly accused of sexual assault by numerous women, and had a business career marked by sharp dealing and multiple bankruptcies. And this is only the tip of the iceberg. The fact that almost half the American people find none of this disqualifying is a profound indictment of our democracy.
And we haven’t even gotten to the issues on which the election will turn. The president serves as the steward of the well-being, foreign and domestic, of the American people. The world is a dangerous place, but Donald Trump offers nothing other than a strongman vibe to address its many challenges. He would sell Ukraine down the river in its war with Russia and encourage Israel’s destabilizing aggression in its Gaza war.
U.S. voters’ impression of our domestic well-being is wrapped around the axles of two issues: the economy and immigration. The economy is, by any objective measure, in great shape, although voters have lingering concerns about its recovery. But none of that has penetrated some significant percentage of Americans who think they are suddenly living through the Great Depression.
Speaking of the Handmaid’s Tale, one issue Trump is desperately trying to minimize in voters’ minds is reproductive freedom. One of the clearest political trends of the last couple years has been the fury of pro-choice women (and men) at the Dobbs decision eliminating the protections of Roe v. Wade, something for which Trump loves to take credit. In every referendum or election in which access to reproductive healthcare is at issue, pro-choice voters have spoken loudly and convincingly. Trump’s response has been to suggest that his “let the states decide” bullshit is a “pro-choice” position, although he still favors a national ban on abortion – oops, a “minimum national standard” – and running mate J.D. Vance has even suggested restrictions on interstate travel for women seeking abortions.
On the other issue, immigration, Trump is closing out his campaign with a series of naked appeals to racism and xenophobia that would make George Wallace blush. At a rally in California this weekend, Trump claimed that Kamala Harris (personally!)
imported an army of illegal alien gang members and migrant criminals from the dungeons of the third world. They come from the dungeons of the third world. Many, many are prisoners. Many are some had [sic] death sentences. They were going to be executed for murder, but they're now living happily in California and other places in our country. 21 million people into our country. It's not sustainable. 645,000 are criminals and some are 214,000 are what they call high grade-a criminals.
None of these numbers, as you might expect, are even remotely accurate. He also called Kamla Harris “retarded,” a slur that went out with disco music. (By the way, in a true example of a Trumpian future, his campaign stranded thousands of MAGAts who attended the rally, forcing them to walk five miles in the dark back to their cars.)
But they aren’t he real problem, he told the unbearable Maria Bartiromo on Sunday. “I think the bigger problem is the enemy from within...We have some very bad people, some sick people, radical left lunatics. And it should be very easily handled by, if necessary, by National Guard, or if really necessary, by the military.”
In case you missed the allusion, the “very bad … sick people” Trump is referring to are you and me, at least if we have the temerity to oppose him or his policies. And he’s already testified to his fond hopes of siccing the military on protesters with whom he does not agree.
… the “very bad … sick people” Trump is referring to are you and me, at least if we have the temerity to oppose him or his policies.
Three weeks to go, and then … And then, it will get even worse. You may recall that, in 2020, the AP did not call the election until the Saturday after, during which time Trump had prematurely (and incorrectly) declared himself the victor. And that was only the opening act in the national nightmare that lasted until the early morning hours of January 7, 2021, when the Congress finally certified that Joe Biden would be our 46th President. During that period, we saw 60 unsuccessful lawsuits, several “fake elector” schemes, naked appeals to fudge the vote count (“I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have,”), and efforts by the MAGA faithful to hang the Vice President of the United States. (“So what?” said Trump when notified of the threat.)
Expect all that, and more, this fall. Trump is already promising that he will not concede if he loses. J.D. Vance, who refused five times in the vice-presidential debate to say whether Trump lost the 2020 election, has said he will accept the results of this election “if it is free and fair.” In the circular logic of Trumpworld, of course, an election is free and fair only if Trump wins.
This time, the election deniers are better prepared. They have already filed multiple lawsuits around the country seeking to disenfranchise large numbers of voters. They have already changed voting laws in many states to make it harder to register, harder to vote absentee, harder to vote early, harder to certify election results – you name it.
And so it goes. What can we do? First, make a plan to vote – what day will you go, where, at what time? Don’t leave it on your “to-do” list through two weeks of early voting. Second, reach out to your friends and neighbors, making sure they have a plan to vote as well. And if you really want to get jiggy with it, join one of the phone banks organized around the country, or, if chatting on the phone is not your thing, get involved with one of the groups that mails postcards to swing state voters. (My hero in this regard is Cherry Kugle, who has sent thousands of postcards over the last several years to voters all over the country.)
Whatever you do, don’t wake up on Wednesday morning and wish you’d done more.
Some reading … it’s time to pay extra attention, folks. Here are some Texas-based Substacks that are doing good reporting and analysis about the coming election. Give them a look-see and a subscription.
Texas To The World by famed TV journalist Jim Moore. Read this essay about the current state of the presidential race.
LoneStarLeft’s Newsletter by Michelle H. Davis. Well-researched and Texas-specific analysis of federal, state and local races. Check out this insightful piece about Ken Paxton’s role as the avatar of Project 2025.
The Border Chronicle by Melissa del Bosque and Todd Miller. In my opinion, the best writing about what’s happening on la frontera, told by experienced journalists. Listen to this podcast about the expansion of immigrant detention under the Biden Administration
Texas Rural Reporter by Suzanne Bellsnyder. Suzanne and I were colleagues when we both served as Texas Senate staffers. She is very knowledgeable on rural issues. Take a look at her latest informative Rural Report, from last week.
On Texas Nature by Misti Little. Misti has been an advocate for conservation and, specifically, Texas parks. “Why Do State Governments Hate Their State Parks?” confronts the combination of laziness, ineptitude and shortsightedness that characterizes Texas’s stewardship of its parks.
Just a note on Real Clear Politics, amigo. They've made no attempt to hide the conservative agenda of their owners. And their polling aggregations tend to include multiple polls by conservative surveyors that oversample Republicans and R-leaning voters. There were about 60 such polls conducted in swing states last week and they skew results that affect findings when they are included in aggregations like CNN's "Poll of Polls," and, to a less extent, even 538's numbers. They can't find them all and pull them. I believe the numbers are at least two points better than what we are seeing.
thanks for the list of local stations that will stream this. says she, wilfully without a television. and yes, beautiful photo. vote!