Three-Point Shots: Wednesday, December 10, 2025
With the primary filing deadline in Texas come and gone, here's a quick look at the state of play for next spring's primaries.
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Wednesday, December 10, 2025
I woke up early this morning, not a common occurrence. At 6:30, the new day was just a ribbon of light on the eastern horizon. Stars and the sinking moon were still visible in the west. I went outside with a cup of coffee and watched the steam rise off it as the birds came to life in the trees. The air was crisp and clear, calm with the promise of a new day.
That same sense of promise is in the air as we prepare for next year’s elections. Things are not good for the country, certainly, but the Republicans have had a brutal fall, losing or underperforming in elections all over the country, including last night in Georgia and Florida.
To be sure, Texas is still a Republican state, but there are even signs of hope here. Now that the filing deadline has passed, let’s survey the landscape of next spring’s primaries.
1. It’s Cornyn/Paxton vs. Crockett/Talarico
John Cornyn and Ken Paxton will duke it out in the Republican primary next spring for the GOP nomination to the Senate seat Cornyn has occupied since 2003. In his four terms in the Senate Cornyn has risen through the ranks, at one point being the #2 guy in the Republican Senate hierarchy. The question is, what does Texas have to show for it?
Ken Paxton will be his most serious opponent (retiring U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is trying to be a spoiler). Paxton, whose personal corruption is prodigious even by Texas standards, wants to bring to the Senate what he brought to the Texas A.G.’s office: performative assholery.
On the Democratic side, State Rep. James Talarico has been laboring in the vineyards of the Lord since early summer. Literally: the legislator/seminarian frames moderate social progressivism as following Jesus, calling MAGA’s bluff on its ostentatious Christian nationalism.
His opponent, Jasmine Crockett, a two-term congresswoman (and former state rep) from the Dallas area, is well-known for her scathing, in-your-face criticisms of the Trump regime. She’s the “It” Girl for Dems now, which is a shame: with them likely to take over the U.S. House next fall, she would have a bigger platform to criticize Trump. She’s gambling that on a bid to defenestrate Cornyn.
(Congressman Colin Allred, who lost to Ted Cruz in 2022, was running again, but decided to campaign for a Dallas-area congressional seat instead.)
My take: This will be the marquee Texas race in 2026. Paxton and Crockett both appeal to their respective bases — can either of them mobilize their party’s centrists to win the primary and then entice independents to win a general election?
2. What’s Going On With Redistricting
You may recall that, in an effort to rig the 2026 congressional elections to preserve a GOP majority in the U.S. House, President Trunp ordered (“entitled to five more seats”) and the Texas Legislature delivered a mid-decade congressional redistricting map, designed to eliminate five Democratic seats and replace them with sure-fire Republican districts.
In order to advance the notion that mid-decade redistricting was necessary, the Trump DOJ sent a letter to the state saying that four of the districts drawn in 2021 were unconstitutional racial gerrymanders and must be remedied. The Legislature adopted that justification for going ahead with the mid-decade disruption.
When the new map was challenged in federal court, opponents of the new lines turned the tables, arguing the DOJ’s letter and other comments indicated the redesign was itself an illegal racial gerrymander. The three-judge panel agreed, and struck down the new map.
Well, the reactionary majority of the Supreme Court would be damned if they were going to let a little racial gerrymandering deprive Donald Trump of his five extra seats, especially since California has already retaliated with its own gerrymandered map. So it left the gerrymander in place so SCOTUS could, ahem, fully consider the new map at its leisure later on.
My Take: My prediction last week: “I’d imagine they will come up with some pretext for leaving the Lege’s new maps in place. Under the Trump/Roberts Court, the desired outcome is more important than precedent, legal logic, or the rule of law.” Bingo!
And so it was, despite a fiery dissent from Justice Elena Kagan. In the short run, the decision shifted a few pieces on the chessboard, including Lloyd Doggett, who is stepping down after an illustrious 50 years of public service.
In the long run, the GOP should be careful what it wishes for. The new Texas map was specifically drawn to take advantage of the Dear Leader’s over-performance in last year’s elections. But, first, he will not be on the ballot next fall and, second, his approval rating is plunging to new lows, even in deep red Texas.
3.If the Rats Are Leaving, Does That Mean the Ship is Sinking?
The nationwide toll of retiring GOP congresspeople has reached 23; six of them are from Texas. The list includes Wesley Hunt, who is running for U.S. Senate against incumbent John Cornyn, and Chip Roy, who is running for state Attorney General as his mentor, Ken Paxton, seeks Cornyn’s seat as well. The others are Michael McCaul, Jodey Arrington, and Morgan Luttrell.
Oh, and Troy Nehls, whose stupidity and slavish devotion to the Dear Leader I have chronicled before. Troy Boy comes from that district that elected Ron Paul, Tom DeLay and Pete Olson. How embarrassing! But don’t worry: Troy’s identical twin brother Trevor is running for the seat. I should be so lucky.
Of course, most of these retirements are driven by the unhappy prospect of being in the minority when the next Congress meets in January 2027. Most of the Texas districts are safe for Republicans, although battles for an open seat can always get tricky in a volatile environment. Remember, the last time the Dear Leader was in office, in 2018, Republicans lost a record 40 seats in the midterm elections.
My take: The only thing more stressful than being in the razor-thin House majority the GOP currently “enjoys” – if that’s the right term for it – would be to be part of a petulant minority.
What are your thoughts on the primary matchups? What am I missing? Please leave a comment below.
A few extra thoughts …
I live in California to be with my son and grandson but I miss the politics. Oh I don’t miss Abbott or Dan Patrick and when they leave who knows? I may return. So I feel like you Deece, are a Christmas present that keeps on giving❣️