Three-Point Shots, Vol. 2, No. 5: May 24, 2024
The second anniversary of the Uvalde Massacre, the primary runoffs next Tuesday, and the Texas Lyceum poll results — what could go wrong?
Welcome to another edition of Three-Point Shots, a part of my Life Its Ownself Substack page. If you enjoy reading it, please 1) hit the Like button, 2) subscribe to the Life Its Ownself, and 3) share it with others in the link below. Comments are welcome and encouraged.
But first, your moment of Zen … I used the word “dawdled” in this week’s newsletter, which put me in mind of the sweetly romantic Lovin’ Spoonful song, “Darling, Be Home Soon.” They performed it live on the Ed Sullivan Show in 1967.
Friday, May 24, 2024
The Uvalde Massacre, Two Years Later
Today is the second anniversary of the Uvalde Massacre, in which 19 students and two teachers at Robb Elementary School were killed by an 18-year-old gunman while over 390 law enforcement officers dawdled outside. (Another 17 people were injured.)
The community now struggles with how to both commemorate the event and move forward. This week, the City of Uvalde settled a lawsuit with the families of the victims for $2 million. The settlement also provides for the city to “designate the May 24 anniversary of the shooting as a day of remembrance; to build a community center; to provide mental health services for survivors and the families of victims; and to do a better job of maintaining the cemetery where many of the victims are buried.”
The lawyers representing the families also announced the filing of a new lawsuit against the Department of Public Safety, which had 91 officers on the scene; Pete Arredondo, who was chief of the Uvalde public school police department when the shooting occurred; and Mandy Gutierrez, who was then principal of the school.
My take: Sadly but predictably, the Uvalde Massacre has changed nothing about Texas’s psychotic gun culture or the legal and political lassitude that enables it.
At the heart of our gun porn culture is the idea that a good guy with a gun will always be there to take down a bad guy with a gun, which is why the good guys must have unfettered access to such prodigious killing power. Uvalde showed us that 390 good guys, ludicrously armed and even cloaked with the power of the State, will nevertheless allow carnage to occur.
I have written about the Massacre before, invoking the image of burning in hell for our inaction. We should expect more of our elected representatives, but they have taken no significant action. It is now up to us, the voters, stand up as humans and citizens and insist on elected officials with the political courage to do something about the guns.
I’m not optimistic.
The Texas Lyceum poll says exactly what we thought it would say.
The Texas Lyceum fancies itself as “a catalyst to bring together diverse opinions and expertise to focus on national and state issues.” Tellingly, when the Lyceum brags on the diversity and quality of its former members, it cannot summon the name of one Democratic community leader or elected official.
The Lyceum annually conducts a poll, placing its fingers on the throbbing pulse of the Texas electorate, then licking them and holding them up in the air to see which way the wind is blowing.
This year’s poll results have just been released. The headlines are entirely predictable. Donald Trump and Ted Cruz lead each of their November opponents by 10 points. Joe Biden has a net 20% job disapproval rating (58%-38%). No statewide official has an approval rating over 50%, although none are in net negative territory (not even Ken Paxton). Texans think the country is on the wrong track by a 63%-25% margin.
In the “irony” category, the survey reveals that taxes, political corruption, and “liberals moving in from out of state” are each viewed as the most important issue facing Texas by 3% of the respondents. The most salient issue, chosen by 29% of respondents, is immigration/border security.
It’s always interesting with a polling instrument to glean what you can about who paid for the poll and why, usually by speculating about where the questions come from. Why was this question included? Why was this question worded this way? As you can imagine, the questions asked considerably shape the conclusions drawn.
This survey, for instance, goes on to ask about specific issue areas, including democracy, water policy, marijuana legalization, casino gambling, mental health, and … space exploration.
I must be honest: if you asked me about the ten most important issues facing Texas, space exploration would not have made the cut. But watch for some combination of boosters, backed by plutocrats, to show up at the Capitol next spring with an expensive proposal for “keeping Texas competitive” in the space race among the states.
My take: The business model of the Lyceum is a familiar one (think Leadership Texas or its local offshoots). You enroll in a program where you meet and network with similar folks, typically young up-and-comers, and are exposed to interesting presentations from subject-matter experts and the chance to rub elbows with policymakers.
But these groups suffer from the organizational version of access journalism: they cannot preserve their access to policymakers if they are perceived as too critical of them. And so they pull their punches a bit: e.g., they leave the unrepentant critic out of a panel discussion. Eventually those compromises add up, and the group’s membership and activities begin to reflect the prevailing power structure and its worldview. The organization then becomes not a vehicle for social transformation, but a prop for the current structure.
Primary runoff elections this Tuesday – VOTE!
It seems like ages ago that the March 5 primaries seriously upset the Texas political apple cart. The GOP House primaries were driven by two well-funded vendettas: by Greg Abbott against members who did not support his voucher scheme, and by Ken Paxton against members who voted for his impeachment. The primary body count was impressive: 10 of 16 targeted Republicans did not survive the primary.
The most consequential runoff race is between House Speaker Dade Phelan and David Covey. Covey got more votes in the primary, but Phelan has raised and spent twice as much as him in the runoff. Even if Phelan wins, expect a vigorous Speaker’s race in the fall, as Abbott and Patrick are both openly committed to seeing him gone.
The consequences of a new Speaker – especially one in whose selection Abbott and/or Lite But Dan Patrick play a role – would be devastating. The House has prided itself on its independence from the Senate and the Governor, and the first job of the Speaker has always been to “protect the members” by letting them vote the will of their districts. Phelan has not been perfect at this but has overall maintained the loyalty of his members. A Speaker’s race in which a candidate has the obvious blessing of either Abbott or Patrick – and the fundraising and messaging muscle that goes with it – would be a nightmare for most House members.
More info: For a good primer on the stakes in the primary runoffs, see “Answer Me This,” a four-minute video by Texas Monthly’s Alex Samuels.
Your weekend reading …
It’s Dallas-area congressman and Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Colin Allred’s turn in the barrel with Texas Monthly’s Alex Samuels, this time for 24 minutes. (Ted Cruz’s tête-à-tête lasted 38 minutes.)
Michelle H. Davis, publisher of the LoneStarLeft Newsletter, has been watching the Texas GOP state convention this week “so you don’t have to.” Michelle is an unabashed Democratic activist in addition to doing good analyses of electoral dynamics. I heartily recommend you subscribe to her newsletter and, in the meantime, absorb her insights (many of them funny) into the GOP convention. Here are her coverage of Day One and Day Two.
You've offered yet another compendium of reasons why I have little hope for change in Texas come November. I'm afraid, politically, we are just a backwards ass state.
Regarding meaningful legislation, the needle didn't move after twenty first graders and six educators were killed in the Sandy Hook shooting in 2012. Same lack of action almost a decade later in Uvalde. The lawsuits which follow these massacres have no preventative value. (Though I personally enjoyed the pounding Alex Jones received in a Travis County courtroom.)
You are right that voters can make a difference... and that they won't.