They’re Not Dead Yet!
Democrats proved they still have a heartbeat in last night’s Texas primaries.
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Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Over one hundred years ago, a postal clerk in Zurich named Albert Einstein published two stunning scientific papers, positing a theory of special (1903) and then general (1915) relativity. Einstein’s ideas revolutionized – indeed, created – modern physics.
One of the tantalizing (what a marvelous word!, derived from the Greek myth of Tantalus) effects of Einstein’s work is that it suggested theoretical possibilities, or corollaries, that have yet to be fully understood or verified. For instance, Einstein posited the existence of dark matter and dark energy, which have been demonstrated but are not fully understood. His conclusions also posited wormholes, which to date remain only a theory.
In Texas, the laws of political gravity and motion are encapsulated in what’s known as the Conventional Wisdom™. Like relativity, there are rules that serve to explain events, but also theories that are as yet unproven.
Rule Number 1 of the Conventional Wisdom™ is that Texas is a 55-60% Republican state; ergo, no Democrat can win statewide.
This rule has 30 years of evidence going for it.
However, there is a corollary, subscribed to by some but as yet undemonstrated, that goes like this:
Elections are decided in the GOP primary, unless the GOP commits hara-kiri by nominating an absolutely unelectable candidate. Let’s call it the Sid Miller Hypothesis, or SMH.
There is no evidence for the SMH, although the GOP has nominated some clunkers in the past. (In yesterday’s primary, the GOP prevented a test of the SMH this fall by ousting Miller in his bid for re-election.)
This cycle, the GOP seems bound to test the SMH in at least a couple statewide races. The most important is the marquee race for the U.S. Senate seat once occupied by Sam Houston, and for now occupied by John Cornyn. Cornyn is in the fight of his political life, which has otherwise been cushy and unremarkable.
Cornyn faces a primary challenge from the MAGA branch of the Texas GOP, in the persons of soiled Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt. Last night, Cornyn was forced into a May runoff with Paxton, in what may end up being the most expensive primary race ever – Cornyn and his allies spent $70 million before the March 3 primary.
Donald Trump, who so far has not endorsed in that race, today promised that he would soon (The Atlantic is reporting he’ll endorse Cornyn) and suggested that whomever he does not endorse should drop out at that point. I’d say “fat chance,” but let me give a more dignified, Conventional Wisdom™-type response: either Paxton or Cornyn dropping out at this point would be a miraculous demonstration of Trump’s ironclad hold on the Texas GOP.
If Paxton wins the runoff, many people think that would set up the ultimate test of the SMH, for several reasons:
Paxton is certifiably the most corrupt elected official in modern Texas politics;
His patron, Donald Trump, is facing shriveling popularity ratings and widespread dissatisfaction with his handling of key issues (although he remains popular in Texas); and
The national Democratic Party, with control of the Senate in play and smelling blood in the water, is prepared to spend beaucoup to defeat him
Rule Number 2 of Texas Conventional Wisdom™: Texans will not elect a black woman to statewide office. Call it the Kamala Harris Rule, or KHR.
Thus, the Conventional Wisdom™ is that the best opportunity to twin the seat is clean-cut seminarian and state rep James Talarico. In spite of a spirited campaign from Dallas-area Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett, Democratic voters obliged yesterday by nominating Talarico without a runoff.
Unless Trump’s intervention sets the table before then, we won’t know who Talarico faces until late May. So, he’s got up to a three-month head start on his general election campaign.
The other interesting race is for Texas Comptroller, where former GOP state senator and all-around weirdo Don Huffines smoked his primary opponents, including Kelly Hancock(who Governor Greg Abbott had appointed to the office after a vacancy arose last year) and Christi Craddick, the nepo baby member of the Texas Railroad Commission. Huffines secured 57% of the primary vote because of his excellent MAGA credentials, and depite news reports noting that he’d purchased the former Zorro Ranch in New Mexico, where some of Jeffrey Epstein’s bodies may be buried – literally! That will make for some interesting campaign messaging.
Huffines’s opponent in November will be State Senator Sarah Eckhardt of Austin. In addition to having her two most credible opponents eliminated, Eckhardt is lucky enough to have a “free shot” – she is in the middle of her four-year term and can return to the Texas Senate if she loses.
It also bears noting that primary turnout reached 23%, exceeding levels in recent non-presidential election years. Among them, Democratic ballots exceeded GOP ballots, approximately 2.2 million to 2 million, for the first time since 2020. Texas Democrats are apparently energized — “fired up and ready to go!” as someone once said. Will that last until November, and will it be enough to break The 30-Year Curse?
I truly hope the endorsement comes down for Paxton because I think we can better get Dems to turn out more for Talarico in November against him than for Cornyn, despite Cornyn being a wet noodle overall. I will say, I haven't been this energized over a primary in a while. I am disappointed over Nathan Johnson got more votes than Joe Jaworski but glad to see they are going to a runoff. Johnson was one of people in the committee that threw FLSP under the bus back in 2023.