Everyone agrees the Talarico-Crockett matchup will be the marquee event in the March Democratic primaries. But there’s lots of debate over who ought to win, and why.
It's complicated. Voters do not register by party in Texas, so the only indicators of party affiliation we have is actual voter turnouts.
That said, Texas has a long history of suppressing the vote: literacy tests (Democrats), poll taxes (Democrats, too, both in the old days), photo ID (Republicans), denying the franchise to felons (Republicans), restrictions on early or absentee voting (Republicans) gerrymandering (Republicans). It is one of the hardest states for a person to register and vote in.
Does Texas have more “registered” Democrats than Republicans? And if so are Democrats just not voting because of gerrymanders and suppression?
Since we do not register to vote by party, the situation is always fluid. The fact of the matter is Texas is at least four different regions, each with its own weather patterns and culture. It is very difficult to nail down exactly how many D’s or R’s there are in this state when we do not register by party.
Texans used to pride themselves on being pragmatic, independent thinkers. This was before Texas Republicans were overtaken by foreigners (what we call people from other states) who co-opted some kind of cartoon stereotypical Hollywood distortion of “a Texan” as the Republican identity. But in general and in theory, all Texas voters are independents or swing voters.
I think it would be a mistake to assume all those voters who don’t vote are hidden Democrats. Because of generations of suppression, most Texans do not have a culture of voting. Most don’t know what party they prefer. And, if they do vote, the average Texans takes their voting cues from social groups and superficial ads that don’t truly capture the stakes. This tends to lead to voting Republican because Republicans work those spaces very hard in Texas. Democrats haven’t contested any of this Republican malarkey in Texas for 30 years.
And, in rural areas, as in rural areas all across the country, people tend to be conservative in the old-timey, pre-Trump sense. Therefore, I wouldn’t put all my hopes on secret Democrats suddenly showing up and turning Texas Blue this year or even in 2028. We do have a chance to break some of these voters off and cut Republican margins enough for a statewide Democratic win.
It is going to take very slow and steady rebuilding of a Democratic party presence in people’s lives over time and in Texas culture generally. Democrats have to overcome a history of conservatism and of Republicans being the only game in town. I am very optimistic about this prospect. I think Texans are still pragmatic and independent minded as long as they have the proper information.
The wiser way to look at things is Democrats have opportunities right now because Republicans are screwing Texans’ lives up economically. We can score some conversions by making that case. We need to vilify Republicans. We need to destroy the current toxic Republican brand. We don’t need to abandon our principles or our policies.
We need to make our principles and our policies the more attractive choice at the ballot box. If Texans still are pragmatic and independent minded, they will vote for us in this election.
And then, we make our case again in the next election and the next election and… We don’t assume any voter is a fungible and static widget on an election assembly line we can plug into elections and win just because they registered for a particular party. We seek their votes every election with open minds and the genuine intent of making their lives better.
Check out the Texas Monthly stories I linked. The evidence seems to be that the non-voters are disproportionately young, poor, and Hispanic. Those sound like Democratic constituencies, but Trump made inroads into all three groups in the 2024 election.
I would argue that, whoever wins, higher turnout and participation benefits the people of Texas in the long run.
I was born a child of several generations of texans, paternal and maternal, and i was born different, which means, unlike my family i did not buy into nor did i find people of color any different than me and i had a hard time growing up even in austin, the most liberal and easiest city in which to survive in texas during the ‘50’s and that racism is still a problem in the state to this day. There were many like me i was to find…remember the 60’s? Racism and oil. Most wars, after i was born with the bomb, have been about oil, garnished with race and religion. Trumps people were klan members. I remember boys talking about the south rising again when i was a kid. The people we are trying to vote out of office seem to be in accord with embracing oil, racism and christian nationalism. Not to mention the destruction of the education system. We are in a fight for our freedoms and republicans seem to relish the destruction of our democracy. I would vote for crockett or tallarico over a carpetbagger from maine like patrick or a do nothing idiot like cornyn any day. And this whole thing of relegating women to birth and the kitchen ain’t gonna happen. We gotta vote the revisionist racists out.
Thanks for your insights, Victoria. The Republicans have enjoyed 30 years of hegemony in Texas state politics. (At the local levels, Democrats command all the big cities and counties where Teexas's economic vibrancy takes root). As a result, the GOP leaders are corrupt (Paxton, Miller) or prize culture wars over real progress for the people (Abbott, Patrick). Voter suppression and gerrymandering help the GOP maintain its advantage, and the Democrats need to keep making inroads into the "missing voters."
The Texas GOP have spent the past 30 years running our state like a Dirty Swamp and Criminal Syndicate. The Utter Crooked,Cronyism and Corruption rampant is a horrible stench. Nothing but a bunch of Good Ol’ boys and Party loyalty to protect Criminals and Special Interests. It is one of the main reasons why I absolutely Despise Dubya with every fiber of my being. Because Gov Ann Richards lost Reelection on a Narrative that was a Malicious and Misogynistic LIE. The Texas Republican Party flat out told a BALD FACE LIE that Serial Killer Kenneth McDuff had been paroled in 1989 thanks to “Governor Richards”. She was NOT even Governor then. Nixon Lapdog Bill Clements was Governor in 1989 and the One who Approved McDuff’s parole. The Gotdamn GOP were the ones who let the Animal out of his cage to kill again, yet they Deflected,Gaslighted and Pinned it on Richards.🤬
Excellent analysis as usual, sir. I read recently that many mainstream Dems feel Crockett is too much of a firebrand. Conversely, Talarico’s effusive Christian messaging alienates other Dems. I doubt those "Cons" are enough to tamp down the voters, and may even be considered a "Pro" to their bases, thereby negating these issues.
Every so often I see these posts that say there are registered Dems than GOP in TX and that they are gerrymandered out of power.
Is that even true?
Yes. It’s true. Texas is a Heavy Bellwether Suburb State. There’s so many suburbs and Bellwethers that simply don’t vote.
It's complicated. Voters do not register by party in Texas, so the only indicators of party affiliation we have is actual voter turnouts.
That said, Texas has a long history of suppressing the vote: literacy tests (Democrats), poll taxes (Democrats, too, both in the old days), photo ID (Republicans), denying the franchise to felons (Republicans), restrictions on early or absentee voting (Republicans) gerrymandering (Republicans). It is one of the hardest states for a person to register and vote in.
Does Texas have more “registered” Democrats than Republicans? And if so are Democrats just not voting because of gerrymanders and suppression?
Since we do not register to vote by party, the situation is always fluid. The fact of the matter is Texas is at least four different regions, each with its own weather patterns and culture. It is very difficult to nail down exactly how many D’s or R’s there are in this state when we do not register by party.
Texans used to pride themselves on being pragmatic, independent thinkers. This was before Texas Republicans were overtaken by foreigners (what we call people from other states) who co-opted some kind of cartoon stereotypical Hollywood distortion of “a Texan” as the Republican identity. But in general and in theory, all Texas voters are independents or swing voters.
I think it would be a mistake to assume all those voters who don’t vote are hidden Democrats. Because of generations of suppression, most Texans do not have a culture of voting. Most don’t know what party they prefer. And, if they do vote, the average Texans takes their voting cues from social groups and superficial ads that don’t truly capture the stakes. This tends to lead to voting Republican because Republicans work those spaces very hard in Texas. Democrats haven’t contested any of this Republican malarkey in Texas for 30 years.
And, in rural areas, as in rural areas all across the country, people tend to be conservative in the old-timey, pre-Trump sense. Therefore, I wouldn’t put all my hopes on secret Democrats suddenly showing up and turning Texas Blue this year or even in 2028. We do have a chance to break some of these voters off and cut Republican margins enough for a statewide Democratic win.
It is going to take very slow and steady rebuilding of a Democratic party presence in people’s lives over time and in Texas culture generally. Democrats have to overcome a history of conservatism and of Republicans being the only game in town. I am very optimistic about this prospect. I think Texans are still pragmatic and independent minded as long as they have the proper information.
The wiser way to look at things is Democrats have opportunities right now because Republicans are screwing Texans’ lives up economically. We can score some conversions by making that case. We need to vilify Republicans. We need to destroy the current toxic Republican brand. We don’t need to abandon our principles or our policies.
We need to make our principles and our policies the more attractive choice at the ballot box. If Texans still are pragmatic and independent minded, they will vote for us in this election.
And then, we make our case again in the next election and the next election and… We don’t assume any voter is a fungible and static widget on an election assembly line we can plug into elections and win just because they registered for a particular party. We seek their votes every election with open minds and the genuine intent of making their lives better.
Very insightful comments, Cynthia. As you say, Democrats have a long way back, but there is a path, even in 2026.
And... there is reason to believe that those non voting Dems would vote GOP (if I am reading the essay correctly)? That is bonkers
Check out the Texas Monthly stories I linked. The evidence seems to be that the non-voters are disproportionately young, poor, and Hispanic. Those sound like Democratic constituencies, but Trump made inroads into all three groups in the 2024 election.
I would argue that, whoever wins, higher turnout and participation benefits the people of Texas in the long run.
I was born a child of several generations of texans, paternal and maternal, and i was born different, which means, unlike my family i did not buy into nor did i find people of color any different than me and i had a hard time growing up even in austin, the most liberal and easiest city in which to survive in texas during the ‘50’s and that racism is still a problem in the state to this day. There were many like me i was to find…remember the 60’s? Racism and oil. Most wars, after i was born with the bomb, have been about oil, garnished with race and religion. Trumps people were klan members. I remember boys talking about the south rising again when i was a kid. The people we are trying to vote out of office seem to be in accord with embracing oil, racism and christian nationalism. Not to mention the destruction of the education system. We are in a fight for our freedoms and republicans seem to relish the destruction of our democracy. I would vote for crockett or tallarico over a carpetbagger from maine like patrick or a do nothing idiot like cornyn any day. And this whole thing of relegating women to birth and the kitchen ain’t gonna happen. We gotta vote the revisionist racists out.
Thanks for your insights, Victoria. The Republicans have enjoyed 30 years of hegemony in Texas state politics. (At the local levels, Democrats command all the big cities and counties where Teexas's economic vibrancy takes root). As a result, the GOP leaders are corrupt (Paxton, Miller) or prize culture wars over real progress for the people (Abbott, Patrick). Voter suppression and gerrymandering help the GOP maintain its advantage, and the Democrats need to keep making inroads into the "missing voters."
The Texas GOP have spent the past 30 years running our state like a Dirty Swamp and Criminal Syndicate. The Utter Crooked,Cronyism and Corruption rampant is a horrible stench. Nothing but a bunch of Good Ol’ boys and Party loyalty to protect Criminals and Special Interests. It is one of the main reasons why I absolutely Despise Dubya with every fiber of my being. Because Gov Ann Richards lost Reelection on a Narrative that was a Malicious and Misogynistic LIE. The Texas Republican Party flat out told a BALD FACE LIE that Serial Killer Kenneth McDuff had been paroled in 1989 thanks to “Governor Richards”. She was NOT even Governor then. Nixon Lapdog Bill Clements was Governor in 1989 and the One who Approved McDuff’s parole. The Gotdamn GOP were the ones who let the Animal out of his cage to kill again, yet they Deflected,Gaslighted and Pinned it on Richards.🤬
Excellent analysis as usual, sir. I read recently that many mainstream Dems feel Crockett is too much of a firebrand. Conversely, Talarico’s effusive Christian messaging alienates other Dems. I doubt those "Cons" are enough to tamp down the voters, and may even be considered a "Pro" to their bases, thereby negating these issues.
I feel as if the analysis left something out. It proported to be about the Senate race but I am left expecting more. Probably my brain needing rest!