Campaign 2024 Begins, and We Already Have Victims
The deaths Friday night of one woman and two children in the Rio Grande were completely predictable, given the rhetoric and actions of Donald Trump and Greg Abbott.
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Wednesday, January 17, 2024
As I started typing this on Tuesday, the temperature in Austin was creeping above freezing for the first time in two days. It will get up to 70 on Thursday before hovering around freezing for most of the weekend. Next week will seem more like a typical Texas winter – highs in the 60s, lows in the 40s.
I have lost my enthusiasm for Texas’s hot summers, with weeks of 100 degree-plus temperatures. Astute Readers know that I spend much of my summers out in the Trans-Pecos region near Big Bend National Park. My Most Astute Readers know that summer temperatures out there are, on average, 5-10 degrees cooler than in Central Texas, especially at night.
But I am also losing my enthusiasm for multiple days of sub-freezing temperatures. Winter Storm Uri probably knocked it out of me once and for all. Anyway, stay warm this week!
Donald Trump Wins Iowa … As If It Was Ever in Doubt
The news is full of stories about Donald Trump’s victory in Monday night’s Iowa caucuses. It was “historic,” an “historic landslide.” He was “dominant.” He had a “record-setting margin of victory” according to the Des Moines Register, which keeps records of these things.
Who cares? The only suspense was whether he would break 50%, which he did. Other than that, the Iowa caucuses this year could have been predicted last year – as some people did.
Now on to New Hampshire. Will Trump win there? Of course he will. The media is peddling an optimistic narrative that Nikki Haley will win, or at least be competitive, in New Hampshire, but that looks more and more like wishcasting.
The underlying theme of these GOP horse race stories is that wide segments of the Republican Party understand that Donald Trump is 1) a crook and a con artist, 2) a drag on the party’s electoral fortunes this fall, and 3) a menace to our democratic society. But the Republican base either doesn’t believe or doesn’t care about those facts. The Republican Party belongs to Donald Trump lock, stock and barrel.
The Conventional Wisdom now is that only an extremely lucky Haley or an errant cheeseburger down Trump’s windpipe can prevent him from his third straight nomination as the GOP candidate for president.
Which means the general election will be between Trump and Joe Biden, who despite a successful economic and foreign policy record, is deeply unpopular with voters. In fact, next November’s election will likely pit two very unpopular figures against each other, with only the fate of our democracy in the balance.
Meanwhile, in Texas …
Complete the following sentence, as uttered by Our Only Governor Greg Abbott in an interview with washed-up NRA harpy Dana Loesch last Thursday. Asked about the state’s effort to deter immigration at its border, Abbott said “The only thing we’re not doing is we’re not shooting people who come across the border, because …”
A. “that would be morally wrong according to my Catholic faith.”
B. “shooting people as they cross the river would make people think I am a lapdog for Dear Leader Donald Trump, and I want to show my independence.”
C. “of course, the Biden administration would charge us with murder.”
D. “my focus groups think shooting them is a waste of bullets and prefers letting them drown.”
The correct answer, as Astute Readers know, is C. Still, one has to admit that the other answers are at least plausible, given the moral and political hole Greg Abbott has dug for himself.
Let’s consider the moral putrescence at the heart of Abbott’s answer. You could take his statement to mean:
He’d order shootings if there were no consequences, and that would be fine with him and Cecilia.
If he did order shootings, the only persons to object would be the “Biden Administration” – and not, for instance, the decent people of Texas, to whom he is supposedly accountable, or the District Attorney of Maverick County, in whose jurisdiction said murders might occur.
The Biden Administration would charge him with murder, not because shooting unarmed human beings is wrong, but as part of its ongoing effort to obstruct Texas’s heroic efforts to protect the border from the illegal immigrant invasion.
It should really be left up to him to decide whether shooting border crossers is wrong, and not the villainous “Biden Administration.”
To no one’s surprise, Abbott’s rhetoric was widely condemned by, well, grownups, to the point where he had to hold a press conference on Friday to deny he’d advocated for shooting migrants as they crossed the river.
One of the adages of politics is, when the headline says, “Gov. Greg Abbott denies he's advocating shooting migrants crossing Texas-Mexico border,” you’re in messaging trouble.
The Fog of Pander
Abbott’s foot-in-mouth disease turned into karmic tragedy Friday night, when it was revealed that Texas law enforcement officers had forcibly prevented Border Patrol agents from rescuing migrants caught in the Rio Grande’s treacherous waters near Eagle Pass, leading to the deaths of one woman and two children.
The accusation was first made by U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, who said he had the story from Border Patrol sources. Texas Public Radio tells the tale:
On Friday night, Border Patrol agents nearby learned from Mexican officials that a group of migrants were in distress.
They tried to call the Texas Department of Public Safety and Texas National Guard unsuccessfully and then drove over to Shelby Park, according to Congressman Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo), who was briefed on the matter.
"Border Patrol agents then made physical contact with the Texas Military Department and the Texas National Guard at the Shelby Park Entrance Gate and verbally relayed the information," Cuellar said. "However, Texas Military Department soldiers stated they would not grant access to the migrants—even in the event of an emergency —and that they would send a soldier to investigate the situation." (emphasis mine)
The bodies of the migrant woman and two children were eventually recovered by Mexican authorities.
The stage was set for such a catastrophe when, earlier last week, Abbott ordered the National Guard to kick the Border Patrol out of Eagle Pass’s Shelby Park. According to CBS News,
The Border Patrol has used the park in recent weeks to hold migrants in an outdoor staging area before they are transported for further processing, including last month, when illegal crossings soared to record levels.
Earlier Thursday, Texas state officials prevented Border Patrol boats from patrolling that area, one of the officials added, requesting anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the press.
"They are denying entry to Border Patrol agents to conduct our duties," the official said, noting they are not sure "what authority (Texas officials) have over the federal government."
This is consistent with Abbott’s immigration strategy – make the journey dangerous enough (buoys, concertina wire, etc.) that migrants will return to the (checks notes) deadly gang violence and economic repression that they call home. A newer wrinkle is to create confrontations with federal immigration authorities in the name of “protecting Texas sovereignty.”
The death of these children is the entirely predictable result of such a “strategy:”
Yorlei Rubi (left), 10, and Jonathan Agustín Briones de la Sancha, 8, are shown in a 2019 photo. Both children drowned Friday night in the Rio Grande. Photo via CNN.
Once word of the drownings got out, Abbott and company had a whole raft of explanations: The phone lines were down. They hadn’t paid their cell phone bill. It was pizza night and no one was on duty. They got lost in the park. They ran out of gas on their way down to the river. The woman and children were already dead. It wasn’t their fault!
It wasn’t their fault!!
Abbott is playing a dangerous game with his fake-macho provocations of the Biden Administration. He knows immigration is a top-line issue for Republican voters and, frankly, there’s a lot to criticize in the Administration’s handling of the issues. The problem is, the game is dangerous — but not for him. His docile electorate will not hold him accountable for three migrant deaths, or 30 or 300. Maybe he’s hoping to be secretary of Homeland Security in a new Trump Administration – relocating to Washington next spring would give him an excuse for not passing vouchers again.
Or maybe, like his spirit animal Donald Trump, the cruelty really is the point.
Tapped the like button for the well written (as always) commentary but Lord help us if we can't find a better way to resolve issues at the border than letting mothers and children drown while the powers that be argue about jurisdiction. Who's in charge?
Good grief. you are right, but good grief …