Arrests, Indictments and Stank Shake Up the Paxton Picture

In which Paxton’s bestie becomes a jailbird and the Orange Mad King gets indicted, and we see the Transitive Property of Stank at work

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         Bur first, your moment of Zen … Mellow has been walking his neighborhood every day since 2019. He has cancer, so his human put out the word about his last walk ..

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Friday, June 9, 2023

         Holy moley! Since I last wrote on Tuesday, three developments have rocked Paxton Impeachment World. I will discuss them in chronological order. But first, a brief primer on

1.    The Transitive Property of Stank

         Consider if you will the following: Joe fondled the boss’s wife at the company picnic. He’s going to get fired, and everyone knows it. They avoid him in the breakroom and decline offers to go out for a “brewski” after work. When his best buddy Homer sees him in the hallway, he does this:

         Joe has the Stank on him, and there’s nothing he can do. And his co-workers do not want to risk getting the Stank on them, which is why they avoid him. This is known as the Transitive Property of Stank: Stank is contagious, and you damn sure don’t want to get it on you.  

         I once worked in an office where a fella got the Stank on him, and everyone knew except him. It was a confusing couple weeks for that guy until he finally surrendered to the inevitable.

         If there’s any profession that’s highly allergic to the Stank, it’s politics. Just to take a recent example, consider the dead silence in the House Chamber when the Speaker asked if anyone wanted to speak in defense of Rep. Bryan Slaton, whose defenestration we thought was going to be the high drama of the session.

2.    Paxton Brings Out His Own Big Guns

         In a dramatic dog-and-pony show at Texas Republican Party headquarters, Ken Paxton’s legal team threw down the gauntlet in his impeachment battle. Houston attorneys Tony Buzbee and Dan Cogdell will lead his defense team, assuming Buzbee doesn’t simultaneously run for Houston mayor.

         Paxton’s lawyers focused on the House investigative and impeachment process, calling it “baloney,” “worthless and weak,” “shameful and despicable,” and a “sham,” according to the Austin American-Statesman. They did not comment on the substance of the allegations (as no one on Paxton’s side ever seems to).

         They also said they will request a delay in the trial, currently scheduled to start not later than August 28. “Maybe next August” in 2024, Buzbee said.^[i]

         Not to put too fine a point on it, but delay has been the cornerstone of Paxton’s legal strategy from the start. He has put off the trial on his securities fraud case since 2015, and the whole point of the whistleblower settlement was to prevent that case from coming to trial. Delay is not just a washed-up Congressman from Sugar Land.

         My take: The defenders will add some color and combativeness to the proceedings, which may be the last thing Ken Paxton wants in the long run. Both sides are trying this case in the public and hoping the Texas Senate, which ultimately will make the decision, is paying attention.

3.    Paxton Pal Nate Paul Locked Up by the F.B.I.

        Yesterday afternoon Austin real estate speculator and Paxton bestie Nate Paul was booked into Travis County jail on as-yet-unknown federal charges. The F.B.I. has been investigating Paul for several years. In fact, many of the allegations against Paxton in his impeachment deal with Paxton trying to help Nate Paul in a crusade against the F.B.I., who Paul believed was persecuting him.

         Paxton’s team speculated for the Dallas Morning News that Paul’s arrest was driven by the Paxton impeachment:

One of Paxton’s impeachment attorneys, Dan Cogdell, said he didn’t know what the charges were and that the FBI did not reach out to him ahead of time. But he assumes they involve Paxton in some way, and added that he believes the FBI is going to try to get Paul to turn on his client.

         It seems unlikely that Paxton’s impeachment – a constitutional matter for the Texas Legislature – is driving F.B.I. decisions on the Paul case, but you do you, Dan. Remember, the F.B.I. has been independently investigating Paxton’s mischief-making and the whistleblowers’ complaints. Perhaps Paxton has hired Cogdell to defend him against any federal charges, too. By the way, I want it on the record that the FBI did not reach out to me ahead of time, either.

         My take: We don’t know what Paul was arrested for, or whether the charges have anything to do with his relationship with Paxton. But that doesn’t matter: the Stank on Nate Paul just got real, and even if it is not tied to Paxton, some Stank is now on him (see # 1, above). In my experience, legislators avoid the Stank as much as possible (ibid.). Legislators may believe Paxton is God’s Messenger and blah blah blah, but the limb out onto which they will climb for him just got a lot shorter.

         And, last but not least, the biggie:

4.    Trump Indicted! 

         Yesterday evening, Donald Trump was indicted in Florida on seven counts related to the stolen documents he took, then hid, then lied about hiding. Among the no-no words mentioned: Espionage Act, conspiracy, obstruction of justice. Check out the New York Times and The Washington Post’s coverage. Trump will be arraigned in Miami on Tuesday, at which point (if not before) we will get to see the specific charges.

         My take: Texas Monthly’s astute Dan Solomon wrote a piece this week titled, “Paxton’s Impeachment Is Not a Referendum on Trump.” He pointed out that 60 Republicans in the Texas House defied an explicit threat from Trump – “I will fight you!” – to vote for Paxton’s impeachment. He concluded that, while Trump remains very popular, the Paxton impeachment is symptomatic of a larger intramural GOP fight over which the Orange Mad King has limited influence.

         Paxton’s allies and the Texas GOP may have been hoping to bring Trump’s star power to bear on an unjust “witch hunt” (one of the Orange One’s favorite phrases) led by “RINOs” (another oldie but goodie). Their hopes may be dashed, for two reasons: first, Trump has enough problems of his own, and is unlikely to expend a lot of energy defending Paxton; and more important, by the Transitive Power of Stank, the value of Trump’s support has declined – not for the MAGA hordes who worship Trump, but for the legislators who must make calculated decisions about their futures. My guess is, we’ll hear very little from Paxton about Trump’s support for him, and nothing from Trump about his erstwhile best friend.

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         When Ted Cruz says it’s “grotesque and an abomination,” he must be talking about. …. Uganda’s new anti-homosexuality law? Good on you, Ted. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

         Have a great weekend!

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^[i]           This is such a ludicrous statement that it deserves its own commentary at some point in the future.