Abbott and Paxton Have Promised Retribution: Can They Deliver?

Both Governor Greg Abbott and Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton were embarrassed by House Republicans this year. The heck with beating the Democrats, they’re going to war with fellow GOPers!

Both Governor Greg Abbott and Atty. Gen. Ken Paxton are proud and prickly, and both have promised revenge against their fellow GOPers who frustrated them during this year’s regular and four special sessions. But retribution is easier said than done, and the March primaries may be another object lesson for the most extremist elected officials in the state.

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         But first, your moment of Zen … Today is the Feast of Our Lady of Guadalupe, Patron Saint of Mexico and Patroness of the Americas. This is the image left on the cloak of Juan Diego, to whom the Virgen is said to have appeared four times. It is preserved in the Basilica of Our Lady of Guadalupe in Mexico City, the third most-visited sacred site in the world.  

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Tuesday, December 12, 2023, 9:00 a.m.

         Once upon a time, it was thought bad form for a statewide elected official to get involved in his or her party’s contested local primary elections. The exception to that was the “friendly incumbent” rule: if Senator Ravenclaw or Representative Hufflepuff had played well with the others, the statewide elected official might endorse their re-nomination to that seat against a challenger.

         Self-interest was the precipitating logic behind this. If I’m a statewide elected official – the Governor, for instance – what is the benefit to picking sides in a local political battle when you might pick wrong and you’ll have to work with the eventual winner?  

         Consistency was another factor. Whoever won the primary would expect the full-throated support of the statewide elected official – the Attorney General, for instance – in the general election. But if that statewide official had endorsed an opponent in the primary, that might cause messaging problems in the general. Better to stay out of the primaries and support the party’s nominees in the general.

         For Republicans during their long exile as a minority party in Texas, there was the additional imperative of Ronald Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment: “Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican.” Although it was never fully obeyed, the 11^th Commandment guided Republicans in their campaigns for a generation.

         That conventional wisdom presumes two healthy parties who contest the general election, and are thus motivated to put forth the most broadly acceptable candidates. Unfortunately, Texas has not had two healthy parties for at least 20 years and closer to 30. The combination of GOP-engineered gerrymandering and an ineffectual Democratic Party have made the vast majority of legislative and congressional districts in Texas noncompetitive.

         Over the same time, the political and ideological dividing lines within the Texas Republican Party have become more pronounced. The ultraconservative fringe became the Tea Party wing became the MAGA mainstream of the party. The traditional Republican base – business, rural communities, suburbanites – has been vilified as “RINOs,” insufficiently committed to the sweeping social and political changes sought by the party’s loudest partisans.

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Over the same time, the political and ideological dividing lines within the Texas Republican Party have become more pronounced. The ultraconservative fringe became the Tea Party wing became the MAGA mainstream of the party.

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         And so we have the curious phenomenon of two of the GOP’s statewide leaders, Governor Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton, actively participating in primary elections against Republican incumbents they view as their enemies.

         As Elliott Gould says in Ocean’s Eleven, “This sort of thing used to be civilized.” No more.

         The filing deadline was yesterday, clarifying the primary picture for next March. (Kudos to Michelle H. Davis of the Lone Star Left’s Newsletter for this list of all the candidates.)

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         Let’s start with Paxton.

         Last May, 60 Republicans voted with 61 Democrats to impeach Attorney General Ken Paxton:

         Phelan (a very rare vote by the Speaker, who usually abstains), Allison, Ashby, Bailes, Keith Bell, Greg Bonnen, Buckley, Bumgarner, Burns, Burrows, Button, Cain, Capriglione, Cook, Darby, Dean, DeAyala, Frank, Frazier, Gates, Gerdes, Geren, Goldman, Guillen, Cody Harris, Hefner, Holland, Hull, Hunter, Jetton, Kacal, Ken King, Litzman, Klick, Kuempel, Lambert, Landgraf, Leach, Janie Lopez, Lozano, Lujan, Metcalf, Meyer, Murr, Noble, Orr, Patterson, Raney, Rogers, Shaheen, Shine, Smith, Spiller, Stucky, Tepper, Thimesch, Troxclair, VanDeaver, Vasut, Wilson.

         Paxton was, to the enduring shame of the Texas Senate, exonerated in a trial that had Dan Patrick’s $3 million fingerprints all over it.

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Read: Mimi Swartz’s riveting behind-the-scenes takedown of the Paxton trial.

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         Immediately afterwards, Paxton announced that he would seek electoral retribution against the GOPers who’d voted to impeach him. Paxton has a little bit of a problem here: It’s … uh, ambitious to declare a fatwa on two-thirds of your party’s House delegation.

         In October, he endorsed challengers in seven House primary races, including the special election to replace disgraced and expelled Rep. Bryan Slaton up in East Texas. Paxton backed a Defend Texas Liberty PAC-endorsed fellow named Brent Money, who garnered the most votes in the special election and will be in a runoff on January 30. Paxton also endorsed challengers to Speaker Dade Phelan and state Rep. Andrew Murr, the leader of the House impeachment managers. Murr (R-Murrstache) has since announced his retirement.

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         Meanwhile, Greg Abbott has made vouchers (aka education savings accounts) the Great White Whale of his governorship. Careful, Greg – Tom Craddick and Rick Perry foundered on the selfsame Scylla and Charybdis of Texas politics. On one side, Democrats; on the other, rural Republicans. In half a century of the richest right-wingers in Texas trying to privatize the public education system, they have not appreciably lessened opposition to doing so.

         This time, Abbott upped the ante by threatening to primary rebellious GOP members who killed vouchers in the session that ended last week. There were 21 GOP apostates:

         Allison, Bailes, Keith Bell, Burns, Clardy, Darby, Dean, Geren, Holland, Kacal, Ken King, Kuempel, Lambert, Murr, Price, Raney, Rogers, Shine, Smith, Ed Thompson, VanDeaver.

         Abbott’s sh*t list is more modest that Paxton’s, so he’s got that going for him. As the commanding general of the voucher movement, he has another challenge: He has to support pro-voucher Republicans, even if they are on Paxton’s hit list. At the least, he ought to, although this sort of loyalty has not been an Abbott trait in the past.

What follows is the sort of trenchant, data-driven analysis you’ve come to expect from Life Its Ownself. Wouldn’t you love to share this newsletter with a friend, and maybe even buy them a subscription? Happy Holidays!

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         Based on their votes on Paxton’s impeachment and Abbott’s vouchers, GOP House members can be grouped into four tranches. Let’s unpack the numbers:

The Heretics – for impeachment, against vouchers

         These 18 are, in GOP terms, the worst of the worst: Allison, Bailes, Keith Bell, Burns, Darby, Dean, Geren, Holland, Kacal, Ken King, Kuempel, Lambert, Murr, Raney, Rogers, Shine, Smith, and VanDeaver.  

         Along with Speaker Dade Phelan, whose hidden hand is thought to have shaped both votes, they have the biggest targets on their backs. Phelan has two challengers. As of the filing deadline last night, Kacal, Murr and Rogers are retiring, and the following have one (or more) challengers: Allison (2), Bailes (2), Keith Bell, Burns, Darby, Dean (2), Geren, Holland (2), Ken King, Kuempel (2), Lambert (2), Rogers, Shine (2), Smith, VanDeaver (2). Reggie Smith is the sole member of the Apostate Caucus to avoid a primary challenge.

The Iconoclasts – against impeachment, against vouchers

         There are three GOP House members who voted against Paxton’s impeachment and against vouchers: Clardy, Price, and Ed Thompson. Price and Thompson are retiring, and Clardy has one challenger. Will Paxton protect him against Abbott’s retribution because Clardy supported him on impeachment?

The Loyalists – for impeachment, for vouchers

         Forty-one GOP House members voted for Paxton’s impeachment and for vouchers: Ashby, Bonnen, Buckley, Bumgarner, Burrows, Button, Cain, Capriglione, Cook, DeAyala, Frank, Frazier, Gates, Gerdes, Goldman, Guillen, Cody Harris, Hefner, Hull, Hunter, Jetton, Kitzman, Klick, Landgraf, Leach, Janie Lopez, Lozano, Lujan, Metcalf, Meyer, Noble, Orr, Patterson, Shaheen, Spiller, Stucky, Tepper, Thimesch, Troxclair, Vasut, and Wilson. They supported Abbott on his signature issue, vouchers; should a little ol’ vote to impeach Paxton be held against them?

         Many of them will claim that the Paxton impeachment was a rare “Speaker vote,” required as a sign of loyalty to the Speaker and his leadership team. In any case, Paxton’s retribution seems not as swift or mighty as feared: of the 41 in this category, one is retiring (Goldman) and 18 have no primary challengers. Paxton has already endorsed challengers to DeAyala, Jetton, and Stucky, with more endorsements sure to come, but his threat to take on everyone that voted to impeach him already has a hollow ring.    

The Well-Behaved – against impeachment, for vouchers

         And finally, there are 22 GOP House members who voted against Paxton’s impeachment and for vouchers. These are, from the Abbott/Paxton Axis point of view, the best of the best: Anderson, Cecil Bell, Craddick, Cunningham, Dorazio, Harless, Caroline Harris, Harrison, Hayes, Isaac, Leo-Wilson, Morrison, Oliverson, Paul, Schaefer, Schatzline, Schofield, Slawson, Smithee, Swanson, Tinderholt, and Toth. At least with regard to these bellwether issues, their conservative bone fides are intact.  

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         Not all primary opponents are the result of a grand plan by Abbott, Paxton, or both to reduce the Legislature’s population of RINOs. But the opportunity to unseat someone who voted against you – even a fellow Republican – will play a role in fundraising, messaging and field organizing in many campaigns.

         These permutations and combinations are made more complicated by the fact that the pro-voucher and pro-Paxton factions share the same network of donors, activist organizations and political operatives.

         And while those players are loyal to Abbott or Paxton, most of them have other business before the Legislature and are reluctant to burn down the house.

         Paxton, for instance, may dislike Corpus Christi-area Rep. Todd Hunter for his vote to impeach him, but Hunter is one of the most powerful members of the House and is extremely popular in his district.

         Fort Worth-area Rep. Charlie Geren is another good example. He fails both litmus tests, but reactionaries in the Texas GOP have been trying to defenestrate him for more than a decade. He plays a key role in the House as a consigliere to Phelan (and before him, Bonnen; and before him, Straus) How likely is it Paxton – or even Abbott – can dislodge him?

         It bears mentioning that a major goal of this whole exercise is to weaken Speaker Dade Phelan’s hold on that office. As the Paxton impeachment vote shows, members are loyal to him – loyalty that’s been tested and affirmed by Lite Guv Dan Patrick’s escalating war of words with Phelan. But the long knives are out for Phelan, who must both defend his own seat and raise money to help members of his “team.”

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         And so it begins. Democrats, for their part, are playing nice with each other and working to make sure most seats, even in deep-red districts, are contested – including, in the wake of its decision denying a medically necessary abortion to cause célèbre Kate Cox, contesting all the available seats on the Texas Supreme Court. There is one marquee primary battle between incumbents – Dallas-area State Rep. Victoria Neave Criado wants to trade up to the seat of Sen. Nathan Johnson. Other than that, though, Democrats seem to be working with a unity of purpose for which they are not known.

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         Be sure to read …

         … Texas Monthly’s annual Bum Steer Awards – do you agree with their selection for Bum Steer of the Year?

         … The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta, son of a pastor and steeped in the evangelical church, laments how Donald Trump corrupted that movement into a personal cult.

         … Nick Catoggio analyzes right-wing media (and its constituencies), splitting it into the “beer track” and the “meth track,” depending on how it acknowledges Donald Trump’s incipient authoritarianism. Insightful read.